JK: Why the All Blacks Will Win

By John Kirwan · · Aug 2, 2026

I want to be clear about something before I make my case. I've been wrong before. I said we'd win by 15 points in the first test of the Nations Championship and we didn't. I say things with more certainty than I probably should. Victor never lets me forget it.

But here's the thing: I still think we'll win.

What I've seen from this All Blacks team under Dave Rennie gives me real confidence. Not because we've been perfect — we haven't — but because I'm seeing something that's been missing for a while. I'm seeing our DNA coming back.

When I played for the All Blacks, the identity was clear. We ran the ball. We played with freedom. We played on instinct. When Ireland came to Eden Park recently, that first 30 minutes was like watching the All Blacks I grew up in. Quick ball, wide ball, movement off the ball, six or seven guys in motion before the pass is made so the defense has to choose. That's us. That's how we play when we're playing.

And we haven't hit our straps yet. I genuinely believe that. What we've seen is pieces of it — flashes of the style, moments of the DNA. But 80 minutes of it, sustained, against the pressure that South Africa will bring? We haven't had to do that yet. Neither have they.

The forwards give me confidence. The loose forward combination with Ardie, Peter Lakai, and Luke Jacobson — and that's not a traditional seven in Jacobson, Dave Rennie was very clear about that — gives us something physical and mobile. Patrick Tuipulotu coming off the bench as an impact player at lock, with his line-out leadership and his ability to carry, is exactly the sort of thing you need late in tight test matches.

And then there's Cam Royard. I'll just say it: he's turning into a world-class nine. He stood up against DuPont — one of the greatest nines on the planet — and matched him. He's talking more, organising more, making decisions in the face of pressure. He's the kind of player who is only going to get better.

Will Jordan, I don't need to tell you about. Three tries against Ireland. All-time All Blacks try-scoring record. There will come a moment in this series — there always does — when the game is in the balance and you need someone to do something special. That's him.

Here's what I keep coming back to. South Africa haven't been put under sustained pressure this year. They put themselves under pressure against Scotland by going to sleep defensively, but nobody has sustained pressure against them for 80 minutes. We need to match them at the breakdown, match them up front, and then — when we have quick ball and space — we need to back ourselves to play.

I know what Victor will say. He'll talk about their DNA, their scrum, their physicality at the breakdown. He's right about all of it. That's what makes this worth watching.

But we're a good team, and we're getting better every week. I'll say 3-1 to the All Blacks. If Victor wants to bet on it, I'll sort something out with the Klipdrift.